ASTK12263U Domestic change and the development of China as a great power

In the end of the 1990s, when China’s economic reform and opening up process started to show results with a stronger and more visible China on the international stage, the debate in the Western International Relations literature about China’s rise was polarized. There was a tendency to either characterize China as a revisionist rising power that would cause conflict in the international system and therefore needed to be contained, or as a status quo rising power that would act within the existing system and therefore needed to be engaged. Today there is no longer any doubt about China’s strong importance and influence in the international system, and in recent years the ‘revisionist China vs. status quo China’ debate has gradually been replaced by a general consensus in the Western International Relations literature about the further rise of China as a threat against the existing international economic and political system and the principles on which the system is built. Analyzing Chinese foreign and security policy since 2008, a growing number of Western International Relations scholars argue that China is developing into a more aggressive and ambitious great power that increasingly is pushing its own interest and demands. Recent Chinese activities in relation to the unsolved maritime disputes in the South and East China Sea are especially highlighted as examples of a generally more aggressive and ambitious China. The Western ‘assertive China’ literature, however, has several problems. Alastair Iain Johnston has recently highlighted how there is a tendency to ignore elements of Chinese foreign and security policy behavior in recent years that do not reflect a changed Chinese approach and Chinese aggressiveness. That is to select cases on the dependent variable. This is surely the case, but a more fundamental problem is that Western analyses of developments in Chinese foreign and security policy behavior in recent years tend to ignore or downplay the importance of the domestic context in which Chinese foreign and security policy is decided. The overall argument behind this course is that in order to understand and explain the developments in Chinese foreign and security policy behaviour in these years it is necessary to also ‘go domestic’.

The Chinese leadership today faces huge domestic changes and challenges with a declining economic growth, a more dynamic, diversified and critical society and a more fragmented political system. The focus of the Chinese leadership is on handling these domestic changes and challenges, and the critical point is that Chinese foreign and security policy in many ways also primarily is directed towards – and dictated by – Chinese domestic politics. That is because concerns about securing domestic control and the legitimacy of the Chinese leadership, e.g. the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), always ranks first whether it is in Chinese domestic politics or in Chinese foreign and security policy. Therefore, the so-called ‘assertive turn’ in Chinese foreign and security policy since 2008 also has to be reexamined in the context of a Chinese leadership more preoccupied with and pressured by domestic change and challenges and in the handling of these more willing to use history and nationalism. 

This course therefore focuses on the nexus of Chinese domestic politics and Chinese foreign and security policy setting out to thoroughly analyze and discuss the changing roles and policies of China in the international system through the lens of domestic socio-political developments. What are the critical domestic changes and challenges in China today? How does the Chinese leadership seek to respond to them and what are the implications of its institutional and strategic choices for the development in Chinese foreign and security policy? Are certain domestic developments in China ‘pulling’ Chinese foreign and security policy in certain directions? These are some of the questions that the course sets out to analyze and discuss. Specific emphasis is on gaining insights and knowledge about how the Chinese perceive, discuss and decide in relation to domestic changes and challenges and the changing responsibilities and policies of China in the international system.

Structure:

The course is divided into four parts. The first part constitutes a general presentation of the course with focus on the background, objectives and expectations as well as a general introduction to the evolution of the political landscape and society in modern China and to China as an international actor. The first part also includes an introduction to the on-going debate about ‘how to study China’, i.e. introduction to the main theoretical and historical approaches and arguments in the Western and Chinese academic debate. In the second part the focus is on specifying ongoing domestic socio-political developments and dynamics and further on discussing and assessing the importance of these for the development in the Chinese international identity and self-perception as well as in the Chinese foreign and security policy. Specific focus is on identifying the most important domestic challenges currently facing the Chinese leadership and on discussing how their handling of these influences Chinese foreign and security policy. Understanding of developments in the domestic context in China and the way these interact with developments in the regional and global political and security situation is needed to comprehend the complexity behind the Rise of China on the world stage in these years. In the third part several case studies are conducted examining recent developments in Chinese international behavior on certain issues in the area of international economy, politics and security hereby trying to identify and assess how the identified domestic factors interact with developments in the regional and global political and security situation and influence Chinese international behavior. In the fourth and last part, focus is on more overall questions of the driving factors and dynamics, the main implications and challenges related to domestic socio-political developments in China and to the Rise of China for Chinese leaders as well as for the region and the U.S. Specific attention is given to the way the U.S. is trying - especially through the American re-balancing or ‘pivot’ strategy in the Asia-Pacific - to ‘manage’ the Rise of China. The discussion also returns to the Western and Chinese academic debate assessing the main theoretical and historical approaches and arguments. 
 

Qualifications acquired:

Upon conclusion of the course, students will be able to conduct theoretically sophisticated and well-researched analyses and discussions related to the ongoing debate on the Rise of China, specifically regarding the interaction between domestic socio-political developments in China and the changing roles and policies of China in the international system. Students will become highly knowledgeable of important current developments and challenges in Chinese politics, economy and society.