ASTK12133U Developments in Greenland and the Arctic

The evolving situation of seemingly unavoidable climate change has catapulted Greenland into the proclaimed role of the messenger of rapid changes going on in the Arctic and signaling global changes of unforeseen dimensions. Despite UN talks of greater resilience, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, the global community is acting almost like a rabbit-caught-in-the-headlights, not acting to escape an approaching catastrophe. At the same time, Greenland is a gate to the opportunities and challenges that the Arctic offers a growing world population with growing demands for resources that the climate change makes easier accessible in the Arctic generating ramifications in other areas. The course will discuss these dynamics in four areas exposed by drastic changes. The predominant scenario for Greenland within the Arctic looks like this:

Climate change means global warming, and in the Arctic this means melting ice. Both the ice sheet and especially the sea ice are envisaging accelerating melting development perhaps beyond the tipping point. The melting ice makes natural resources more accessible, hence enhancing possibilities for extractive industries in a vast territory. It also makes new trans-arctic shipping routes more feasible, hence increasing traffic possibilities through the Northwest Passage and along the Northern Sea Route. Recent ice data show that the Arctic might become seasonal ice free during the next 10-35 years. Also, Asian interests in the Arctic concerning commercial, political and security implications of climate change are increasing. Therefore, from the perspective of a comprehensive concept of security, there is a risk that these developments will create problems for traditional security and human security at different levels. Locally, search and rescue (SAR) operations will pose governance problems that cannot be handled locally or even nationally and, hence, need regional or global attention. Nationally, the security policy implications of Asian investments will create tensions with Denmark on Greenland’s self government setup. Regionally, with or without the success of Asian states’ applications for ‘permanent observer’ status, the Arctic Council needs to transform into a strong international organisation making legally binding decisions.